Plinko

Each row consumes one float from the HMAC stream: below 0.5 the ball goes left, otherwise right. The bucket is simply the number of rights — a binomial distribution, which is why the centre pays least and the edges pay most.

Multipliers are Stake's published tables for 16 rows / medium risk. Expected return = Σ P(bucket) × multiplier ≈ 0.99, i.e. a 1% house edge whatever the risk setting; risk changes variance, not expectation.

P(bucket k) = C(16, k) / 2^16