Strategy guides: the honest maths, one game at a time

These strategy guides are arithmetic, not tips. One per game, each computes how the payout is built, what every setting does to the variance, and what martingale, d'Alembert, Fibonacci and “cash out at 2×” do to the odds of going broke, with a simulator link that reproduces each claim over thousands of seeded sessions. They all end the same way because the games do: every round returns 99% of the stake on average (97.3% on roulette), and a staking plan can only pick the next stake, not the next result.

The same coin flip on six games

Most of what people call a strategy is choosing a bet that wins about half the time and pays about double. Every game here can express that bet. Here is what it costs on each: probability times payout is the expected return, and it reads 0.99 everywhere except the wheel.

A near-2× bet on each game: win chance, payout and expected return
GameThe betWinsPaysExpected return
DiceWin chance 49.5%49.50%2.0000×99.00%
LimboTarget 2×49.50%2.0000×99.00%
CrashAuto cash-out 2×49.50%2.0000×99.00%
Mines3 mines, cash out after 5 picks49.57%1.9973×99.00%
Dragon TowerHard, cash out after 1 row50.00%1.9800×99.00%
RouletteRed48.65%2.0000×97.30%
Plinko is missing because its payout is not binary: a drop can return 0.2× or 1,000×. Its nine boards return about 99% too; the Plinko guide prints each one. Roulette's red pays 2× on a 48.65% chance because the zero is in the way: 36/37 instead of 0.99.

Play the games the guides are about

Or take any plan to the strategy simulator and watch it run.

Questions

Are these guides strategy tips?
No. They are the arithmetic of each game: how the payout is computed, what each setting does to the spread of outcomes, and what the popular staking plans do to the probability of ruin. Every number is computed from the published tables and formulas in the page code, and every guide ends with the same conclusion, because the maths does: no plan changes the expected return.
Why does every guide say the expectation is −1%?
Because every game here except roulette pays a fair multiplier times 0.99: Dice pays 99 ÷ chance, Limbo and Crash reach x with chance 0.99 ÷ x, Mines and Dragon Tower pay 0.99 over the survival odds, Plinko's tables sum to about 99%. A staking plan chooses the stake before the result exists, so the session's expected loss is 1% of everything staked. Roulette is 2.70%, set by the single zero.
Can I test a strategy myself?
Yes. Every guide links to the strategy simulator with the settings already filled in and a fixed seed, so the run you see is the run the guide describes. Change anything and run again; it is play money and the seed is in the URL.

Last reviewed 2026-09-27

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